How Antonelli could clinch the world title at the US Grand Prix
Kimi Antonelli leads by 102 points with six rounds left and can be champion in Austin if he wins and Russell finishes ninth or lower. We lay out the scenarios and the season numbers behind them.
Five rounds to spare would be a near-record
Kimi Antonelli could be crowned world champion as early as Sunday's United States Grand Prix in Austin, with five races still to run. That would leave him one round short of Michael Schumacher's 2002 mark for the earliest title, and at 20 he would be the youngest champion the sport has had. It is possible, but it needs a near-perfect Sunday.
What has to happen in Austin
After Singapore the Mercedes driver leads team-mate George Russell by 102 points with six rounds left. The remaining rounds offer 150 points, because no sprint weekends are left on the calendar. To be champion in Texas, Antonelli has to leave the Circuit of the Americas more than 125 points clear of every rival, which is the most anyone could still score in the five rounds that follow.
Autosport, Crash.net and PlanetF1 all describe the same route. Antonelli must win the race, and Russell must finish ninth or lower. Lewis Hamilton, third in the standings, also has to be kept far enough behind, which the outlets put at fifth place or lower, although Autosport's own text and table disagree on the exact thresholds. A win would take Antonelli to 365 points.
If Antonelli wins and Russell takes ninth, the gap would be exactly 125 points. In that case Russell could in theory still draw level by winning every remaining race, but Antonelli would take the title on countback of wins. If Russell finishes tenth, he would need to be classified eighth or lower for the title to be decided in Austin. A second place or worse for Antonelli sends the fight to Mexico City.
The numbers behind it
Our race data backs up the position. Antonelli has 340 points, Russell 238, Hamilton 229, Max Verstappen 221, Charles Leclerc 215 and Lando Norris 201. Antonelli has won eight of the 17 races so far; Russell has three, Norris and Verstappen two each, and Hamilton and Leclerc one each. Antonelli also finished third in Singapore, where Verstappen won ahead of Leclerc.
A win in Austin would eliminate Verstappen, Leclerc and Norris mathematically, according to the outlets' calculations. Crash.net adds that Russell faces a grid penalty for a new engine, and that a Mercedes upgrade could send both Mercedes drivers towards the back of the grid, which would make the winning scenario harder.
What comes next
The United States Grand Prix starts on Sunday 25 October at 20:00 UTC. If the title is not settled there, the series moves on to Mexico City. Crash.net also reports that Antonelli reacted to a remark from Jenson Button that he could clinch in Austin with the words "Can I? Really?", adding that he first has to perform on track.
